2015-07-03

Popular Misconceptions I: Consensus



So, I asked some of my friends & readers for input on what they distrust about “mainstream science” - later clarifying that I'm referring to the processes of professional research, peer-review, and the concept of “scientific consensus”. I've decided to do another multi-part series, this time tackling each response individually, in the hopes of helping everybody better understand that system which advances our understanding of the natural universe.

Feel free to let me know in the comments below, or privately through the inbox for my Facebook page or Twitter account if there's something specific that you distrust about the way science is done.


Consensus




Activists and politicians often talk about “scientific consensus” as if it’s some kind of conspiracy, or a democratic system, (depending on whether you are for or against the issue at hand), but this couldn't be further from the truth. In science, opinions are irrelevant, nobody “decides” what is true, and you certainly don’t prove it. Observations are made, possibilities are ruled out, and the best available explanation - the one that best predicts the outcome of experimentation - becomes the accepted theory.

Does this mean every scientist in the world shakes hands and moves on? Hell no! The evidence is constantly being re-evaluated. The best way to make a name for yourself in science is to disprove the commonly accepted theory and put forward a new explanation. Teams all over the world are constantly testing both new and established theories, looking for ways to improve our understanding. Only when an idea is able to stand up to this intense scrutiny can a claim of consensus be made. “Consensus” here only means that we're trying really, really hard, but nobody has yet come up with an idea that works as well as this one. Check back in a few years, maybe that will change.

As an extension of this, if someone claims that a new discovery has forced scientists “back to the drawing board”, they merely show their own ignorance of science. Science is the method of figuring out how the universe works, by its very nature it must always take place at the proverbial “drawing board”.

TL;DR

Scientists are always in competition with one another. Consensus happens when nobody can find enough evidence to disprove a concept.

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